Mortgage backed securities had a calm day yesterday, never straying far from opening levels, posting inconsequential gains by close. You could say the market was in "wait and see" mode ahead of the Employment Situation report--one of the most important monthly economic indicators released each month. But sometimes the data with the most potential to move markets...doesn't move them at all.
That WAS the case in the MBS market this morning. The report showed mixed data, with LOWER than expected job losses but HIGHER than expected unemployment (full story on MND...). Though stocks were slightly higher and treasuries much lower, MBS walked their own path for most of the morning. In fact, whereas the 10 year treasury yield was up 6 basis points this AM, MBS yields were only fractionally higher. Even though MBS are still performing much better than treasuries today, accelerating losses put the yield increases closer to .05% at the moment.
Keep in mind, that changes in MBS yields are occurring at the investor level. Though MBS yields, given enough time, will almost exactly match up with mortgage rates, it's up to individual lenders to decide how quickly and by how much actual rate sheets are changed. The implied change in today's mortgage rates is 0.05% higher right now. In the spirit of "taking it away faster than giving it back," lenders may raise rates more than this. I've been fairly enthusiastic about locking this week, so hopefully you're already locked and not even reading this! But if not, and if you are NOT seeing higher rates this AM, locking should be a strong consideration, as you are likely to see higher rates by days end depending on your lender.
Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate that rates today are higher than what we had yesterday morning. This places the par 30 year conventional rate mortgage in the 4.875% to 5.125% range for the best qualified consumers. If you are closing within the next 30 days, I would suggest that you get your rate locked early this morning, especially if your lender has not yet repriced for the worse--likely a common occurrence today.
My next post will come to you on Tuesday. I hope everyone has a wonderful Labor Day weekend.
Despite mixed economic reports last week, mortgage rates held near four month lows as prices of mortgage-backed securities approached four month highs. General weakness in stock markets contributed to the rally in fixed income and mortgage rates. As stock sold, Treasuries rallied, MBS moved higher in price, and lenders were able to pass along better mortgage rates...bringing the par 30 year fixed rate mortgage to 4.75% by week’s end.
The week ahead is busy! The highest impacting report comes on Friday with the release of the Employment Situation report. Today is the only day with no scheduled data. On Tuesday we get a couple second tier reports with the release of the Case/Shiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence. In addition to the scheduled reports, Federal Reserve Bank Presidents giving speeches. Anytime voting members of the Fed speak, market participants will pay attention for any hints at future policy strategies and outlooks on the economy.
Wednesday brings us several data points beginning with the weekly Mortgage Bankers’ Association Applications index which tracks the weekly change in the number of mortgage applications at major lenders. This report will be followed by the ADP Employment report which will give us a sneak preview of the jobs outlook. The last report of the day will be the release of the Gross Domestic Product(GDP) for second quarter. This will be the final revised numbers for quarter two and expectations call for the numbers to be revised down to -1.2% from -1.0%. However, since this report is looking backwards I do not expect it to be a major market mover unless it varies greatly from expectations.
The week wraps up with the release of probably the single most important piece of economic data, the Employment Situation report. This report gives us four different reads on employment. The first being the number of jobs lost or created from the prior month. Economists surveyed expect a loss of 170,000 from the prior months loss of 216,000. This would be a large improvement over early this year when our economy was shedding jobs at a pace over 500,000 a month. Next is the official unemployment rate which is expected to move higher to 9.8% from 9.7%. The final two measures are a measure on income with hours worked and average hourly wages. Wages are expected to post a increase of 0.2% while the average work week is expected to hold steady at 33.1 hours.
For more on the week ahead, check out the MND story.
Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate that the par 30 year conventional rate mortgage remains in the 4.75% to 5.00% range for the best qualified consumers. In order to secure a par interest rate you must have a FICO score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all closing costs including one point loan origination/discount/broker fee. You can elect to pay less fees or even no fees but your interest rate will be higher. If you are seeking a 15 year term, expect a par rate in the 4.25% to 4.50% range with the same closing costs.
To remind readers that are considering becoming first time home buyers, the clock continues to tick. The first time home buyer tax credit of up to $8000 is set to expire on November 30th. Your loan must close on or before that date for you to qualify for the credit. If for whatever reason your loan closes after that date, you will not get the stimulus money. I suspect that turn times at lenders will increase as many people slam in mortgage applications to beat the deadline. If you are looking to take advantage of this benefit, I suggest that you get moving sooner than later. Many things can happen that delay closings and cause you to lose out. For example, the person you are buying the home from might be buying another home. Maybe there is a problem with that transaction which could delay or prevent your loan from closing. The point being is that there are many moving pieces when buying a home of which many are outside of your control.
WASHINGTON – With the economy on the mend, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it is slowing the pace of a program to lower mortgage rates and prop up the housing market.
The Fed decided to stretch out its goal of buying $1.45 trillion in mortgage-backed securities and debt issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae until the end of the first quarter of 2010. Originally, the central bank intended to complete buying those securities by the end of this year.
It marked the second time since August that the Fed has opted to slow some of its extraordinary support to revive the economy and spur Americans to boost spending. It shows that the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues are increasingly confident the recovery will take hold.
In a more upbeat assessment, the Fed said: "Economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn." When the Fed last met in August, policymakers declared that economic activity was "leveling out."
Even with the pick up in economic activity, Fed policymakers predict inflation will remain "subdued for some time."
Factories are still operating well below capacity, one force that should keep a lid on inflation. Other factors keeping prices in check include the weak job market enabling employers to avoid wage increases, and cautious shoppers making companies wary of raising costs.
Even though the Fed will stretch out its purchases of mortgage securities, rates for home loans should remain low "in the 5 percent range" as long as the purchases continue, said Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance.
If the Fed hadn't extended its deadline, it would have faced pressure to buy more than $600 billion in mortgage-backed securities by December, said Brian Bethune, an economist with IHS Global Insight. A sudden withdrawal from the market after such rapid purchasing could have caused major disruptions. Low inflation and bond yields also will keep mortgage rates low, he added.
"They want to stabilize the markets, they want to contain excess volatility, but they don't want to be a market-maker," Bethune said. "This is the best thing they could have done."
On Wall Street, stocks rose on the Fed's more optimistic outlook. The Dow Jones industrial average, which had risen 27 points before the announcement, was up about 60 points roughly a half-hour after the statement was issued.
Policymakers on Wednesday noted other improvements — specifically that financial conditions are better and activity in the housing market increased.
To foster the recovery, the Fed also decided to hold the target range for its key bank lending rate at a record low of between zero and 0.25 percent. It again pledged to keep rates there "for an extended period." Economists predict that means through the rest of this year, and perhaps into part of next year.
Holding that bank lending rate steady means commercial banks' prime lending rate — used to peg rates on home equity loans, certain credit cards and other consumer loans — will stay at about 3.25 percent, the lowest in decades.
The goal behind leaving rates at super-low levels is to entice people and businesses to step up spending to aid economic growth.
The central bank announced the mortgage-buying program last November, shortly after financial turmoil reached a crisis point.
The Fed has bought roughly $775 billion worth of both mortgage-backed securities and debt from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae, which finance the vast majority of new mortgages for people to purchase homes.
By one estimate, the central bank is buying roughly 85 percent of the mortgages issued by those companies. It's basically bankrolling mortgage lending.
By doing so, the Fed is helping provide demand for these securities — which had dried up when the crisis deepened — and forcing down mortgage rates in the process. The Fed's purchases of mortgage securities and debt have averaged roughly $25 billion a week over the last six weeks.
The housing market has been propped up by the Fed's program. Rates on 30-year home loans dropped to 5.04 percent last week, compared with 5.78 percent a year earlier, Freddie Mac says. But the housing sector's health remains precarious as foreclosures continue to mount.
"There was sufficient concern that if the Fed quit buying mortgage-backed securities cold turkey, that we could see a sharp spike in mortgage rates that would endanger, not only the housing market, but the broader economic recovery as well," said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com. "This puts those fears to rest, with the Fed instead aiming to wean the markets off their reliance on Ben Bernanke's checkbook."
As the recovery gains traction, the Fed will face more pressure to wind down some emergency programs.
It's a fine line Fed policymakers have to walk. They need to leave programs intact long enough to support the recovery but not too long as to unleash inflation later on.
At the central bank's meeting in August, policymakers said they would gradually slow the pace of a program to buy $300 billion in Treasury securities and shut it down at the end of October, a month later than previously scheduled. That program is designed to force rates down for mortgages and other consumer debt to get Americans to spend more. Roughly $294 billion has been purchased so far.
But the program's effectiveness has been questioned on Wall Street and on Capitol Hill. Critics have complained that the Fed appears to be printing money to pay for the government's spending binge.
Last week, Bernanke declared that the recession is "very likely over."
After suffering a free-fall, the economy is growing at a pace of 3 to 4 percent in the current quarter, many analysts predict.
Factory activity is increasing. Home sales are firming and prices are edging up in some cases. Consumer spending is stabilizing, and car-buying got a lift from the Cash for Clunkers rebate program.
But Bernanke warned that the pace of economic growth in the months ahead probably won't be strong enough to generate many new jobs and prevent the unemployment rate from rising. The rate hit a 26-year high of 9.7 percent in August and is expected to top 10 percent this year.
Fed policymakers on Wednesday said consumer spending remains constrained by job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth and tight credit.
After holding steady near the top of the current trading range, mortgage backed securities came under selling pressure yesterday afternoon as stocks rallied off intraday price lows. Several lenders repriced for the worse as MBS losses held into to the close. Despite the price decline of MBS and maringal loss of rebate on rate sheets, par mortgage rates are still holding their recent range between 4.875 and 5.125. To remind readers, the price and yield of MBS and treasuries are inversely related. As the price moves higher, the yield or rate moves lower and vice versa.
There are no major economic reports coming to us today, but we did get a read on home prices. The Federal Housing Finance Agency(FHFA) released their monthly House Price Index which tracks the monthly change in home prices. This index only covers conforming conventional loans of repeat transactions by comparing prices or appraised values for similar houses. A conforming loan amount is one in which the loan does not exceed $417,000. High cost conventional loans apply to areas such as San Francisco and Washington DC where home prices are higher, that limit increased to $729,000. This data set excludes FHA and VA loans from the numbers since they are not a conventional loan. Market participants pay attention to home values as consumers are more likely to spend money in times of home appreciation and less likely to spend when homes are declining in value. Additionally, rising home prices encourages more construction which leads to more jobs and more consumer spending. Many economists believe that our economy will have trouble recovering until home prices start to move higher. Recent reports have shown home prices starting to firm and expectations are for that trend to continue.
At 1pm eastern, the U.S. Department of Treasury will auction off $43billion of 2 year notes. Since the supply is known in advance, market participants will look at the demand at the auction to gauge its success. Strong demand, especially from foreign accounts, has helped keep fixed income yields and mortgage rates low. However, this week Japan is out on holiday, so there is a possibility of a decrease in auction participation. This is the first of three auctions that will be held this week with $40billion of 5 year notes coming tomorrow and $27billion of 7 year notes coming on Thursday. Matt and AQ will cover these auctions once they are completed on the MBS Commentary.
Today is day one of the Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC) two day meeting. The FOMC meets roughly every six weeks and they decide on our nation’s monetary policy. The interest rate set by the FOMC is known as the Fed Fund rate and serves as the benchmark for all other rates. A higher fed fund rate is intended to slow down economic activity that can lead to higher inflation while a lower fed fund rate is intended to stimulate the economy. It is widely accepted that they will maintain the current fed fund rate of 0 to .25%. Not much happens during the first day of the meeting, but tomorrow we get the official announcement of the Fed policy once the meeting concludes at 2:15eastern.
Early reports from fellow mortgage professionals are indicating that the par 30 year conventional rate mortgage remains in the 4.875% to 5.125% range for the best qualified consumers. If you are seeking a 15 year conventional rate mortgage, you should expect a par interest rate in the 4.375% to 4.625% range. In order to secure a par interest rate you must have a FICO credit score of 740 or higher(620 if seeking a 15yr), a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all closing costs including 1 point loan origination/discount/broker fee.
It was an up and down week for mortgage backed securities last week. Despite better than expected economic data, MBS didn’t give up too much ground and mortgage rates did manage to dip to 4.75%. However by week’s end, rates had risen to 4.875% for the best qualified consumers. To remind readers, mortgage rates are determined by the trading of mortgage backed securities. As the price increases, lenders can generally pass along lower mortgage rates. As prices fall lenders offer higher mortgage rates which returns a greater yield to the end buyer of the MBS.
The week ahead is fairly light on economic data. Today, the Conference Board releases the monthly Leading Indicators index which is a composite index of ten economic indicators that should lead to overall economic activity. The report came in just below expectations with the prior two months both being revised higher. No reaction in the markets following this report.
We receive no economic data on Tuesday but we do have the first day of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting where our nation’s monetary policy is set. The Fed is expected to keep the Fed fund rate at the current accommodative level of 0% to .25%. The announcement will come on Wednesday at the conclusion of the meeting with the release of their statement which will also give an outlook on future economic conditions. Market participants will scour this statement for any hint of future monetary policy. Three weeks after this meeting, the FOMC will release the minutes from the meeting which will provide inside information for how each member of the board voted and their thoughts on monetary policy and economic outlook.
Thursday brings us two pieces of data to digest. First is the weekly jobless claims which is expected to show continued improvement on the labor front. Last week’s report did show the weekly claims falling but the continuing claims which totals the number of Americans that continue to file due lack of finding a new job rose unexpectedly. In general, mortgage rates improve with higher unemployment. Lastly we get a read on housing with the existing home sales report. This data measures on an annualized pace the number of existing homes, not new construction, that a sale closed during the prior month. The last four readings of this data has shown existing home sales to be improving with July’s report showing the largest one month increase since 1999! It appears low home prices, low mortgage rates and government stimulus for first time home buyers is having an impact on the housing market. This month’s report is expected to show continued improvement in the housing sector.
While on the subject of housing, I want to encourage everyone that is considering buying a new home to call in sick and go buy a few houses while the gettin's good. Why? The $8000 tax credit for first time home buyers is set to expire on November 30th. If your loan for any reason closes AFTER that date, you WILL NOT qualify for the credit (no soup for you). This tax credit is part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act that was passed earlier this year. Check out my blog from last Thursday for links to more information including videos from the IRS to help clarify all the details. The clock is ticking.
Our week is wrapped up on Friday with the busiest economic data day. The highest impacting will be the Durable Goods order report followed by Consumer Sentiment and New Home Sales. For more on the week ahead, click here for the MND story.
Many consumers have secured their home financing needs with an FHA mortgage. FHA has announced several credit policy changes which I will discuss in future blog posts with one key decision being the adoption of some of the HVCC appraisal guidelines. If you would like to read up on these changes, click here. What are your thoughts regarding these changes?
Early reports from fellow mortgage professionals are indicating that the par 30 year conventional rate mortgage is in the 4.875% to 5.125% range for the best qualified consumers. In order to secure a par interest rate you must have a FICO credit score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all closing costs including one point loan origination/discount/broker fee. As always, you can elect to pay less in fees and secure a higher interest rate or pay additional fees to buy a lower rate.
The type of positive economic headlines seen yesterday would normally lead to lower bond prices and higher mortgage rates, but that turned out to be far from the case. And though MBS initially moved lower, that trend soon reversed and we saw the best day of gains all month as the internal components of the economic reports were not as strong as the headlines suggested. A few examples of this phenomenon...
With absolutely no scheduled economic data today (due to a market even known as "quadruple witching"), let's turn our attention the first time home buyer tax credit that's due to expire at the end of November. If you are considering buying a home to take advantage of this stimulus, I hope you checked out the videos and links in yesterday's blog. One concern as the expiration nears, is that lenders turn times might start to increase as demand picks up. I am already seeing a couple lenders turn times increase so make sure you get out there and find a home quick. If your loan is delayed for any reason and closes after November 30th, you will not get the tax credit. Use the comments section to discuss your personal experiences or ask general questions about lender turn times.
Early reports from fellow mortgage professionals are indicating that the par 30 year conventional rate mortgage has improved to the 4.75% to 5.00% range for the best qualified consumers. In order to secure a par interest rate you must have a FICO credit score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all closing costs including one point loan origination/discount/broker fee. If you are seeking a 15 year term, the par rate has also dropped to 4.25% to 4.50% for the best qualified.
Since we have seen rates dip this week, and since they're at or very close to their best levels of the last four months, it would be exceedingly wise to consider locking if you don't want to run the risk of higher rates. As always, there's no way to know which way rates will go, but in general, the risks of some temporarily higher rates in the near future is higher than normal from a historical perspective. On a more technical level for those interested, MBS have been confined to a trading range (think of it as a "floor" and "ceiling" that contain all our recent price movement) for weeks now. As we're currently at the top of that range, history shows a slight predisposition to resist further improvements.
Remember, the only way you win by waiting is if rates move lower, but how much lower could they go? Everybody wants to lock when rates are at the lowest level, but the problem with that strategy is that you don’t know when rates are at their lowest point until they start to rise and then it is too late. And rates rise at a much quicker pace than they will move lower. So give some earnest consideration to whether or not current rates are good enough to satisfy your financial goals.
After holding levels not seen since early this summer for over a week, mortgage rates are under some pressure to move higher. Yesterday, mortgage backed securities were lower in price which forced lenders to offer higher mortgage rates. The downward move continued all the way into close which led to some lenders repricing for the worse. MBS, after having been range bound near summer price highs, moved toward the bottom of that range yesterday and has actually fallen to lower levels following this morning's data.
Some of this morning's damage came from the Retail Sales report, which showed better than expected spending from the largest component of the economy. As would be expected, the stock market moved higher following the release. MBS and tsy's moved significantly lower increasing the probability of higher rates this AM. Though the robust results were expected due to the "cash for clunkers" program, even when that data was factored out of the so-called "core" reading, results were still significantly better than expected. This runs contrary to a popularly held conception that consumer spending will be the biggest detractor from a predictable economic recovery. An important thing to remember is that the "best in 3 years" statistic refers to the "month over month" pace of change, not some metric of how much consumers are actually spending. The last time retail sales changed at this pace, the annual rate of improvement was a positive 3% compared to the current negative 5%. READ MND STORY
In other data, the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures price changes of certain goods at the producer level, increased much more than expected. When the more volatile components of food and energy are factored out, the increase stood at 0.2% versus an expectation of 0.1%. The markets would need a much more convincing argument if any sort of inflation fears were to take root, especially when voting members of the Fed are saying that the their bigger concern is doing enough to keep prices HIGH ENOUGH, such as San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said in a speech yesterday. For perspective on that, consider that the year over year chance in the PPI shows prices DOWN 4.3%. READ MND STORY
The last significant piece of data, released by the NY Fed in the form of their manufacturing survey showed continuing improvement in business conditions in the NY region's manufacturing sector. Though not a tier one report, if other manufacturing related reports, such as the Philly Fed survey, durable goods, etc... corroborate the results, the market's perceptions about the broader manufacturing can be positively affected. The general implication there would be for stocks to improve and for bonds to deteriorate. As it stands, considering that last month's report showed the first positive reading since 2008, it's too early to call that ball. READ MND STORY
READ MND STORY ON BUSINESS INVENTORIES
At 10am eastern, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered a speech on the year of the crisis to the Brookings Institute. Though not technically "economic indicator data," any time Bernanke speaks, markets listen. Today appears no exception as the most notable recovery for bonds occurred during the speak as he reitterated previous caution on the slow pace of the recovery despite saying that the recession is likely over from a technical perspective. Matt and AQ over at the MBS Commentary blog will cover any important events that transpire during his speech. His words always have the ability to rattle the markets.
Following the three better than expected economic reports, the pressure on MBS continues which should lead to higher consumer borrowing costs this morning. For more on the economic data released this morning, click here.
Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate that mortgage rates did worsen overnight. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage is in the 4.875% to 5.125% range for well qualified consumers. In order to secure a par interest rate you must have a FICO score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all closing costs including one point loan origination/discount/broker fee. If you are looking to secure a 15 year fixed rate mortgage, you should expect a par rate in the 4.375% to 4.625% range. To qualify for the 15 year par rate you must have a FICO score of 620 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all closing costs including one point.
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Mortgage rates continue to hold below 5% despite some better than expected economic data last week. As a general rule, better than expected economic data usually leads to higher mortgage rates while worse than expected data improves rates (that has not been the case recently though). At the close on Friday, the prices of mortgage backed securities were near the highest levels seen since early this summer. As the price of MBS moves higher, lenders have the opportunity to offer lower mortgage rates to consumers.
With the exception of a few speeches from Fed officials today, there is no relevant scheduled economic data. Considering the tier from which today's speakers hail, drastic changes to mortgage rates are unlikely. But anytime Fed officials speak, market participants pay attention for any hints at future monetary policy and their outlook on future economic conditions, however the impact of such speeches can vary greatly. Today at 12:30pm, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker gave a speech on financial regulation. At 3:30pm, San Francisco Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen will give a speech on economic outlook and monetary policy. Matt and AQ will cover any relevant reactions to these speeches on the MBS Commentary blog. Their blog is rather advanced but provides great insight into what moves mortgage rates.
Wednesday brings us another read on inflation with the Consumer Price index. This report measures inflation at the consumer level while the prior day’s report measures inflation on the producer level. This report is expected to show a increase in overall prices but the core reading which strips out food and energy is only expected to show a modest 0.1% rise in prices. We also get a reading on the strength of manufacturing with the release of Industrial Production. If industries are producing more goods, that should lead to higher sales and higher corporate profits. The MBS market prefers slower growth which results in less inflationary pressures so they generally improve with a weaker or slower rate of production. Last month’s reading on industrial production showed the first positive number for 2009 and economists surveyed expect another positive reading due to the boost provided by the cash for clunkers program.
Thursday brings us the weekly jobless claims and a read on housing with the Housing Starts report. Of more importance will be the announcement from the U.S. Department of Treasury of the size of the upcoming auction next week of 2 year, 5 year and 7 year treasury notes. The added supply of debt on the market will apply pressure on treasury yields and thus mortgage rates, to move higher to attract more buyers, unless the actual amount announced is significantly less than analysts are expecting. Despite record amounts of government borrowing, demand for our nation’s debt has remained strong which is one of the factors that have helped mortgage rates hold at historic low levels.
There are no economic reports coming on Friday; however, it is Quadruple Witching day which can create a lot of volatility in the market. Quadruple Witching day happens four times a year and it is when contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire.
For more on the week ahead check out the Top News Section of Mortgage News Daily by clicking here.
Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate that today’s rate sheets are slightly worse than Friday’s. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage moved higher to the 4.875% to 5.125% range for the most qualified consumers. In order to get a par interest rate you must have a FICO credit score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all closing costs including one point loan origination/discount/broker fee. As always, you can elect to pay less in fees and secure a higher interest rate. This is a good strategy for someone keeping a home for less than 3 years, but if you are planning on keeping your home longer it usually makes sense to pay more in fees to get the lower rate. Without paying those fees, the homeowner ends up paying much more over the life of the loan with higher interest payments.
A lack of economic data combined with generally optimistic actions in the stock market kept mortgage-backed securities mostly unchanged yesterday morning, however, following a strong 10 yr TSY note auction, mortgage rates made modest improvements in the afternoon.
The U.S. Department of Labor released Weekly Jobless Claims data at 830 this morning. This weekly report totals the number of Americans that filed for first time unemployment benefits in the prior week. Included within this report is the continuing claims which totals the number of Americans who continue to file for benefits. The report indicated that first time claims last week fell by 26,000 which is slightly better than what was expected by economists. In addition, the continuing claims also fell by more than expected to 6.088 million from 6.24million last week. READ MND STORY
The U.S. Department of Commerce released monthly Trade Balance data this morning.Trade balance data reports the difference between the monetary value of a country's exports and imports. A positive balance, or trade surplus, means exports exceed imports and illustrates that a country's economy is globally competitive. A negative balance of trade is known as a trade deficit or trade gap.
At 1pm eastern, the U.S. Department of Treasury will hold its final auction of the week with $12billion IN 30 year bonds be offered.. Yesterday’s auction of $20billion 10 year notes saw very strong demand which helped MBS to post modest gains in price. This strong demand for our nation’s debt helps to keep mortgage rates low. Matt and AQ will cover the results on the MBS Commentary blog.
Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate that mortgage rates are improved from yesterday. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage is now in the 4.75% to 5.00% range for the best qualified consumers. In order to secure a par interest rate you must have a FICO credit score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all closing costs including one point loan origination/discount/broker fee. If you are looking to access equity in your home, expect either a higher interest rate or additional fees. Typically, equity loans are .125% to .25% higher than a regular purchase or refinance mortgage without paying the additional fees.
We continue to see the best rates sheets since early this summer. If you have been floating, your rate should have improved marginally in the past week. Word of caution on floating...remember, rates move higher much quicker than they move lower.
Although vacations are over in Washington and the summer session has ended on Wall Street, a slow economic calendar combined with a holiday hangover kept trading activity light yesterday. Mortgage rates were mostly unchanged....AGAIN. I don't want to come across as upset about that in anyway. After a summer long battle with volatility it has been nice to work in a more stable environment. Lets just hope the recent range holds!
It appears that consumers are getting out there to buy a home before the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit expires in November. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association this morning released the weekly mortgage applications index. This report measures the changes in mortgage applications at major lenders. Also included with this report is a measure of refinance activity. Higher refinance activity is another positive economic indicator as most people that refinance move to a lower interest rate and lower mortgage payment. Today's data shows that both purchase and refinance activity increased last week. If you are a first time home buyer looking to take advantage of the tax credit, I would suggest that you get out there and find a home. Many consumers will be trying to beat the deadline, and I suspect that volume at lenders will pick up as the deadline approaches which can slow down the process. If you close on December 1st, you do not get the credit so it will be extremely important that your application and processing go smoothly. Call your loan professional and get them the required documentation as soon as possible even if you haven’t found a home yet. Time is of the essence.
Reports from fellow mortgage professionals continue to show that the 30 year fixed rate conventional mortgage rate remains in the 4.875% to 5.125% range for well qualified consumers. In order to qualify you must have a FICO score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all closing costs including one point loan origination/discount/broker fee. If you are seeking a FHA or VA loan, you should expect a rate between 5.00% to 5.25% with similar closing costs but to qualify you only need a FICO score of 620. Some lenders are increasing the minimum credit score on FHA to 640 so it is more important than ever to make sure your FICO score is as high as possible.
If you are considering buying a new home in the future, make sure you get a copy of your credit report from each one of the three credit agencies. HINT: Lately, because of a general back up at reporting agencies, credit reports are more likely show inaccurate information. To receive the best rate possible, it is important that corrections are made as soon as possible. Once a year, you can get a free copy of your credit report directly from the agencies. They will not provide you a score but they will send you the report so you can check it for accuracy. Since the best rates only go to consumers with 740 or higher scores and with guidelines tightening, it is more important than ever to make sure your credit is as clean as possible.
By Craig Torres and Vivien Lou Chen
Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve is trying to prepare investors for an end to its housing-debt purchases, while keeping interest rates near zero, reflecting an economy pulling out of a recession with little momentum.
Federal Open Market Committee members discussed extending the end date of the agency and mortgage-backed bond programs, minutes of the group’s Aug. 11-12 meeting showed yesterday. The move would be aimed at avoiding disruptions in housing credit at a time when recovery prospects are clouded by rising unemployment and slowing wage gains, analysts said.
While the economy is projected to expand this quarter, central bankers had “particular” concern about the job market, signaling that the FOMC may need to see a peak in the unemployment rate before it begins withdrawing monetary stimulus. Some policy makers saw dangers of “substantial” declines in the inflation rate, yesterday’s report showed.
“They need to see labor markets improve and inflation stabilize, and not fall, before they even have a serious discussion about increasing interest rates,” said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York and former member of the Fed’s research staff.
A government report tomorrow is projected to show the unemployment rate rose to 9.5 percent in August from 9.4 percent in July, threatening to curtail consumer spending. Other areas of the economy have indicated the deepest recession since the 1930s has ended: manufacturing grew for the first time in 19 months in August, and home sales and prices have risen.
Next Meeting
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his fellow FOMC members next meet Sept. 22-23 in Washington.
“They see positive economic growth, no job growth, a very slow decline in unemployment, and a huge vulnerability to anything that could shock confidence,” said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. “I would be really surprised if they tightened at all next year.”
Treasury securities rose yesterday as the minutes said Fed officials expressed “considerable uncertainty” about the strength of recovery. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes declined to the lowest level in more than seven weeks, before closing at 3.31 percent in New York. Stocks dipped, with the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index closing down 0.3 percent to 994.75.
Bernanke, 55, was nominated to a second term as chairman by President Barack Obama last month after overseeing a record expansion of the central bank’s balance sheet in a campaign to prevent a depression. Seeking to unfreeze credit and revive growth, the Fed has loaned to banks, provided backstop financing for the commercial paper and asset-backed securities markets and injected liquidity through direct purchases of securities.
Treasuries Program
Central bankers extended their $300 billion U.S. Treasury securities purchase program by a month in August and continue buying up to $1.25 trillion in agency mortgage-backed securities and $200 billion in the debt of agencies including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
A number of policy makers judged that a “tapering of agency debt and MBS purchases could be helpful,” the Fed minutes said. Officials postponed a decision on extending the initiative, which is scheduled to end in December.
An extension would be “an attempt to make quantitative easing potentially less disruptive when it ends,” Feroli said.
Central bank officials have indicated differences on when to begin withdrawing the monetary stimulus.
Plosser’s Take
“We have to begin to pull back from our extraordinary programs,” Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said yesterday while noting a risk of faster inflation in the future. Speaking in an interview with CNBC, he declined to say whether the Fed should begin raising the main interest rate next year.
Fed district bank presidents Jeffrey Lacker of Richmond and James Bullard of St. Louis last week said the central bank may not need to complete its purchases of mortgage securities. New York Fed President William Dudley by contrast stressed an exit is “premature,” citing “high unemployment” and weak growth.
Policy makers saw the economy recovering “slowly” in the second half of this year, and still “vulnerable to adverse shocks,” the Fed minutes said.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner cautioned yesterday that it’s too early to remove policies aimed at reviving the economy.
“We’ve come a very long way but I think we have to be realistic, we’ve got a long way to go still,” Geithner told reporters in Washington as he prepared to leave for a meeting of Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers on Sept. 4-5 in London.
Inflation Outlook
Most Fed officials expected “subdued and potentially declining wage and price inflation over the next few years,” the minutes said. “A few saw a risk of substantial disinflation.”
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index minus food and energy, rose 1.4 percent for the 12 months ending July.
“They are not tightening anytime soon,” said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital LLC in Washington, which manages about $100 million. “They are going to be sitting there with unemployment approaching 10 percent and inflation falling.”
Many mortgage lenders began yeserday with a conservative rates strategy after ealy weakness in the mortgage backed securities market. But as the day progressed, and it became apparent that stocks were languishing, both treasuries and MBS improved to the best levels in nearly two months. This allowed many of the lenders, who were priced conservatively at the outset, to issue price improvements by day's end.
Though Friday brings us the extremely important Employment Situation report, today's data is certainly causing some commotion. First up was the ISM data, which came in at the highest level since 2006. That would normally be a huge benefits to stocks, but that was not the case. Stocks moved much lower and treasury prices rose after this "better than expected" data was released. Perhaps the stock market has run out of gas? To read more on this data click here.
We also received two housing related reports this morning. First was Construction Spending which measures the monthly change in the dollar value of new construction activity. With a glut of existing homes on the market, the less new construction would help to liquidate the existing inventory. Last month’s reading on construction spending unexpectedly improved over the prior month and economists surveyed are expecting a flat reading for this report. The report indicates that construction spending for July declined more than expected posting a month over month decrease in construction spending of 0.2%. READ FULL STORY
The final report today was the Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors. This tracks purchase transactions that are in process, but not yet closed. With tougher underwriting standards and the Home Valuation Code of Conduct creating roadblocks to qualification, many more purchase contracts are falling out. Despite that, today's number were improved and in fact marked the sixth consecutive increase. The current index level is the highest since June of 2007. It appears that the government stimulus for first time home buyers is having a positive effect on the housing sector along with low prices and attractive mortgage rates. I suppose the catastrophically lower prices might have something to do with it as well. For more on this report, click here.
Reports from fellow mortgage professionals are indicating that the par 30 year conventional rate mortgage remains in the 4.875% to 5.125% range for well qualified consumers. If you are looking to secure a 15 year fixed rate mortgage, you should expect a par rate between 4.375% to 4.625%. As always, to secure a par interest rate you must have a loan to value of 80% or less and pay all closing costs including one point loan origination/discount/broker fee. If you are securing a 30 year fixed rate, you must have a FICO credit score of 740 to get a par rate. If your credit score is lower you will either have to pay additional fees or take a higher interest rate. For consumers looking to secure a 15 year fixed rate, you only need a FICO score of 620 to qualify for the par rate.
Mortgage backed securities remain at the top of the current trading range. With the Employment Situation report looming I will continue to advise that locking is the best strategy. Rates today are as low as they have been for the last couple months. Though positive economic data is generally expected to bring about weakness in MBS, recently, the market has been fond of throwing curveballs. Keep in mind that rates move higher faster than they move lower. If you have been floating over the last few weeks, you have already picked up some gains and now is time to cash in.
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