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September 13th, 2011 1:33 PM
Rate Lock Advisory - Tuesday Sep. 13th



Tuesday’s bond market initially opened flat, but has since fallen into negative ground as stocks have erased earlier losses. The stock markets were in negative ground a little while ago but the Dow is currently up 22 points while the Nasdaq has gained 11 points. The bond market is currently down 10/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There again is no relevant economic data being released today, but we do have the 10-year Treasury Note auction to deal with. It is fairly common to see some weakness in bonds before these sales as investors prepare for them, so this morning’s weakness is not too concerning. If today’s sale is met with a decent demand from investors, indicating interest in longer-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds still exists, this morning’s losses will probably be recovered during afternoon trading. The results of the auction will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, therefore, any reaction will come during afternoon trading. If demand was strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve later today.

The week’s important economic data starts tomorrow morning when August's Retail Sales report and Producer Price Index (PPI) are posted during early morning trading. The sales report will give us a very important measurement of consumer spending, which is extremely relevant to the markets because it makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.2% increase in sales. Analysts are also calling for a 0.3% rise in sales if more volatile auto transactions are excluded. Larger than expected increases would be considered bad news for bonds and likely lead to an increase in mortgage pricing since it would indicate economic growth.

August's Producer Price Index (PPI) will be posted by the Labor Department, giving us an important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two readings that analysts follow. They are the overall index and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two since it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Analysts are predicting no change in the overall index, and a rise of 0.2% in the core data. Stronger than expected readings could fuel inflation concerns in the bond market. That would be bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because inflation is the number one nemesis of the bond market as it erodes the value of a bond's future fixed interest payments. As inflation becomes more of a concern in the markets, bonds become less appealing to investors, leading to falling prices and higher mortgage rates.

Also tomorrow is the 30-year Bond auction. Today’s 10-year Note sale is more influential on the mortgage market than tomorrow’s will be, but it still can cause some movement in the bond market and mortgage pricing if the 1:00 PM ET results show an overly strong or tepid demand from investors.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Posted by Anthony J. Hood on September 13th, 2011 1:33 PMPost a Comment (0)

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